There is plenty of data on the calendar Thursday, although the ECB policy decision will undoubtedly be the standout event of the day. The European calendar gets underway at 06:30 GMT, with the release of the French non-farm payrolls data. The latest Banque de France business survey will be published at 07:30 GMT. At 11:00 GMT, the November OECD leading indicators report will cross the wire.
The ECB policy decision will be published at 12:45 GMT, with the press conference set to start at 13:30 GMT. The European Central Bank is likely to counter the series of political shocks that characterized 2016 by demonstrating calm and extending the length of its quantitative easing program at the current pace. This Thursday's policy decision will be the most important since the Bank cut interest rates and boosted the quantitative easing program back in March, as policymakers will determine the scope and ground rules for asset buying in the months to come.
The recovery from Monday’s low saw the pair pop above the 100-WMA last Wednesday but hesitation ahead of ¥114.72-87 remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at very O/B levels. Bulls continue to look for a close above ¥114.72-87 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially ¥115.96. While ¥114.87 caps bears initially target ¥111.
Spot Gold last down $0.50 at $1169.20 per ounce, in a $1,177.60 to $1,167.40 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market continuing to trade on the defensive ahead of the ECB meeting later today. Commerzbank analysts note that "Gold ETFs also saw their 17th consecutive daily outflow yesterday (5.1 tons)". They note "outflows during this time have totalled nearly 150 tons, which is almost twice the inflows seen in the entire third quarter". Commerzbank says "although gold was weighing on silver, silver was nonetheless faring better than gold as trading drew to a close, with the result that the gold/silver ratio dropped below 70 again for the first time in 3.5 weeks".
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