09.12.2016.dailynews webThere is plenty of data in Europe Friday, although the US calendar is muted. There will likely be a round of early comments from ECB policymakers, speaking to national media following Thursday's policy decision. The Continental calendar gets underway at 06:45 GMT, with the release of the Swiss unemployment data. At 07:00 GMT, German trade data and labor costs data will be published. French data due at 07:45 GMT includes industrial production and the latest budget data. The UK data set for publication at 09:30 GMT includes the latest construction output data and the November trade data. Trade data will obviously see the ON Soffer clarity over the pre-referendum data revisions.

There is a very limited US calendar due Friday, starting with the publication of the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index. The Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a reading of 94.5 in early-December from 93.8 in November. With the election now settled, it appears that consumer confidence remains high going into the holiday season, lifted a record stock prices. US wholesale trade data will be released at 15:00 GMT.

Technical Overview

Although bulls have been unable to further capitalise on Monday’s aggressive rally, pressure continues to return to the $1.0796-1.0851 resistance region. Bulls need a close above $1.0851 to confirm a bullish bias and a shift in immediate focus to $1.0916-1.0953. Layers of support are building which is a concern for bears who now need a close below $1.0696 to ease pressure topside and hint at a correction back to $1.0499.

WTI crude Oil futures for Jan'17 delivery are last up $0.15 at $50.99 per barrel, after a $51.10 to $50.84 range in Asia today, with the market receiving slight support from better-than-expected Chinese producer price data. Thursday saw NYMEX January light sweet crude Oil futures settled up $1.07 at $50.84 per barrel, after trading in a $49.61 to $50.90 range. The front contract topped out at $52.42 Monday, at the peak of risk appetite and optimism about last week's OPEC deal to cut production. Market players took mild comfort from West Texas Intermediate again closing above the psychological $50 level. Other than Wednesday, WTI has closed above $50 since Dec. 1, the day after the Nov. 30 OPEC agreement. Supports include the $48.98 low posted Dec. 1 and the 55-day moving average, which comes in at $48.00 currently. On the topside, a break of this week's high in WTI would target $53.50, the July 15, 2015 high. "

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08.12. news statThere is plenty of data on the calendar Thursday, although the ECB policy decision will undoubtedly be the standout event of the day. The European calendar gets underway at 06:30 GMT, with the release of the French non-farm payrolls data. The latest Banque de France business survey will be published at 07:30 GMT.  At 11:00 GMT, the November OECD leading indicators report will cross the wire.

The ECB policy decision will be published at 12:45 GMT, with the press conference set to start at 13:30 GMT. The European Central Bank is likely to counter the series of political shocks that characterized 2016 by demonstrating calm and extending the length of its quantitative easing program at the current pace. This Thursday's policy decision will be the most important since the Bank cut interest rates and boosted the quantitative easing program back in March, as policymakers will determine the scope and ground rules for asset buying in the months to come.

 

Technical Overview

The recovery from Monday’s low saw the pair pop above the 100-WMA last Wednesday but hesitation ahead of ¥114.72-87 remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at very O/B levels. Bulls continue to look for a close above ¥114.72-87 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially ¥115.96. While ¥114.87 caps bears initially target ¥111.

Spot Gold last down $0.50 at $1169.20 per ounce, in a $1,177.60 to $1,167.40 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market continuing to trade on the defensive ahead of the ECB meeting later today. Commerzbank analysts note that "Gold ETFs also saw their 17th consecutive daily outflow yesterday (5.1 tons)". They note "outflows during this time have totalled nearly 150 tons, which is almost twice the inflows seen in the entire third quarter". Commerzbank says "although gold was weighing on silver, silver was nonetheless faring better than gold as trading drew to a close, with the result that the gold/silver ratio dropped below 70 again for the first time in 3.5 weeks".

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07.12.daily news webIt is another full data session Wednesday, with releases scheduled on either side of the Atlantic.  The European calendar gets underway at 07:00 GMT, with the publication of the German industrial production data. At 07:45 GMT, French foreign trade and the current account numbers will cross the wires. The first UK release comes at 08:30 GMT, with the publication of the Halifax House Price Index. Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele speaks at the Handelsblatt  conference "Banking Technology", in Frankfurt, starting at 09:00 GMT. The UK industrial production and manufacturing output data will be released at 09:30 GMT. Brexit will no doubt be to the fore in the Commons Wednesday, as the Prime Minister takes weekly questions, starting at midday.

 

Technical Overview

The recovery from Monday’s low saw the pair pop above the 100-WMA last Wednesday but hesitation ahead of ¥114.72-87 remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at very O/B levels. Bulls continue to look for a close above ¥114.72-87 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially ¥115.96. While ¥114.87 caps bears initially target ¥111.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $0.50 at $1169.20 per ounce, in a $1,177.60 to $1,167.40 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market continuing to trade on the defensive ahead of the ECB meeting later today. Commerzbank analysts note that "Gold ETFs also saw their 17th consecutive daily outflow yesterday (5.1 tons)". They note "outflows during this time have totalled nearly 150 tons, which is almost twice the inflows seen in the entire third quarter". Commerzbank says "although gold was weighing on silver, silver was nonetheless faring better than gold as trading drew to a close, with the result that the gold/silver ratio dropped below 70 again for the first time in 3.5 weeks".

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daily news wewb 06.12Tuesday is a lighter data session in Europe, but the second reading of the euro area Q3 GDP data will be the early highlight The European calendar kicks off at 07:00 GMT, with the release of the German October manufacturing orders data.  At 08:15 GMT, the Swiss consumer price data for November will cross the wires. At 09:30 GMT, the Bank of England will publish the latest Financial Policy Committee Minutes. The euro area third quarter GDP second read will be published by Eurostat at 10:00 GMT.  The US calendar gets underway at 13:30 GMT, with the release of the US October trade data and the non-farm productivity data. The international trade gap is expected to widen to $42.0 billion in October from a $36.4 billion gap in September. The advance report on trade already released for the month pointed to a wider goods gap, with exports down 2.7% and imports up 1.1%.

 

Technical Overview

The sharp sell-off in Asia Monday was reversed aggressively after trading at 2016 lows with the close above the 21-DMA ($1.0696) seeing bulls gain control and immediate focus shift to $1.0817-59. Bulls look for a close above this region to target the 55-DMA. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears now needing a close below $1.0680 to ease immediate bullish pressure and to shift overall focus back to $1.0499.
 
OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jan'17 delivery last down $0.50 at $51.29 per barrel, after a $51.38 to $50.92 range in Asia today, with the market trading lower as OPEC tries to entice more non-OPEC producers to cut production. As Commerzbank analysts note "the market is apparently convinced that OPEC will follow its words with action.

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05.12. webIt is a busy start to the week in Europe, with plenty of follow-through from the weekend as markets ponder the outcome of the votes in both Austria and Italy. Later in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi and Executive Board member Benoit Coeure participate in Euro group meeting, in Brussels, with Greece a key topic of discussion. In the UK, the Supreme Court begins the Government's appeal on triggering A50. The hearing is expected to last 4 days, with a judgement in early January. The European data calendar gets underway at 08:00 GMT, with the publication of the Spanish industrial production data. The euro area final November services/composite PMI data is expected from 08:15 GMT, when the Spanish data is released. Italian PMI is due at 08:45 GMT, France at 08:50 GMT, Germany at 08:55 GMT and the combined euro area data at 09:00 GMT. Also due at 08:30 GMT is the euro area Sentix Economic Index.

 Technical Overview

The recovery from Monday’s low now saw the pair pop above the 100-WMA Wednesday but hesitation ahead of ¥114.72-87 is a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at very O/B levels. Bulls continue to look for a close above ¥114.21 resistance to see pressure remain on ¥114.72-87 with a break above reconfirming the bullish bias and targeting ¥115.96. While ¥114.87 caps bears initially target ¥111.35.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $4.65 at $1,172.80 per ounce, in a $1,188.20 to $1,1171.70 range so far this morning in Asia, the market trading lower as the Euro plunged in wake of Italy rejecting PM Renzi's referendum and hence leading to his resignation. However, despite the Euro recovering from its session lows and the risks Italy's banking sector on the rise post the vote, Gold continues to languish at its session lows.

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