daily news web 10.01The data calendar slows somewhat Tuesday, with limited data expected in Europe and mainly second tier data set for publication in the US. The data calendar gets underway at 06:45 GMT, with the release of the Swiss November unemployment numbers. At 07:45 GMT, the French November industrial production data will be published. The US calendar gets underway at 11:00 GMT, with the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

The Canadian November building permits data is set for publication at 13:30 GMT. The US Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week will be published at13:55 GMT, followed by the November wholesale trade numbers and the IBD/TIPP Optimism Index at 15:00 GMT. Also, due at 15:00 GMT is the latest JOLTS data. Late US data sees the current Treasury Allotments data released at 20:00 GMT.

The dollar was broadly lower against its peers as nervous Asian investors capitulate dollar longs ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's first official press conference tomorrow. Dollar-yen opened at Y116.03 and held a Y115.20 to Y116.21 range, last at Y115.35. Euro-dollar saw demand from both systematic and momentum accounts, which pushed the rate from $1.0574 to $1.0627 and was last at $1.0616. Aussie-dollar shrugged off weaker-than-expected Retail Sales, to rise from $0.7341 to $0.7385 and was last at $0.7375.


Technical Overview


Failure to retest the double daily top around ¥118.66 on the recovery from last week’s low risks putting in a lower shoulder that increases the risk of a correction lower. Bears continue to look for a close ¥114.63 to confirm a break of the 100-WMA and initially target ¥111.40-113.01 where the 55-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a close above ¥117.78 to shift focus back to the double daily top.

WTI crude Oil futures for Feb'17 delivery last up $0.27 at $52.05 per barrel, after a $52.12 to $51.79 range in Asia today, with the market recovering some of Monday's steep losses due to Chinese producer prices rising to 5yr highs, suggesting that spare capacity in the middle kingdom is falling. News that the US will sell some 8mln barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the next few weeks saw WTI oil fall some 4% on Monday. Also weighing in on the market was comments from Kuwait's oil minister who suggested that the recently agreed to OPEC production cuts will be phased over a period of months rather than immediately, as did concerns over Iraqi compliance to adhere to the agreed production cuts. NYMEX February light sweet crude oil futures settled down $2.03 at $51.96 per barrel, after trading in a $51.77 (after hours) to $53.83 range. West Texas Intermediate peaked at $55.24 Jan. 3 which was the highest level since July 6, 2015, when crude peaked at $55.34.



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website news 04.01Wednesday sees a full day of data releases on both sides of the Atlantic, with the services PMI data the early focus, followed by the Euro area inflation data. The European calendar gets underway at 07:45 GMT, with the release of the French consumer sentiment data. The euro area December services PMI numbers are expected from 08:15 GMT, when the Spanish data is due. The Italian PMI will be released at 08:45 GMT, with French data at 08:50 GMT, German at 08:55 GMT and the combined euro are data at 09:00 GMT. There is plenty of UK data due at 09:30 GMT, including the Bank of England's M4 and consumer lending data, along with the December Market Construction PMI numbers. The headline release will likely be the euro area flash December inflation data, set for publication at 10:00 GMT.

 

 

Following stronger data in German, Spain and to a lesser degree France, the odds of an upside surprise to euro area inflation have risen. The US calendar gets underway at 12:00 GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index, closely followed by the December domestic vehicle sales data. Domestic made vehicle sales are expected to slide modestly in December from the 13.8 million rate in the previous month. Seasonal adjustment factors will subtract significantly from unadjusted sales in December after adding in November, but an effort by consumers to beat higher interest rates may have led them to dealers. The current week Redbook Retail Sales Index is due at 13:55 GMT, with the ISM-NY Manufacturing Index expected at 14:45 GMT. At 19:00 GMT, the minutes of the Fed's December FOMC meeting will be published.


Technical Overview

The ¥118.66 resistance confirmed significance Tuesday having so far capped the recovery from ¥116.05. Bears still need a close below ¥116.05 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction initially targeting ¥114.63. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg higher with bulls needing a close above ¥118.66 to target ¥121.69 2016 highs. Layers of support are following the pair higher with below ¥116.97 needed to ease bullish pressure.

 

WTI crude Oil futures for Feb '17 delivery last up $0.15 at $52.62 per barrel, after a $52.65 to $52.33 range in Asia today, with the market seeing bargain hunting after Tuesday's 2.6% fall and some 5% plunge from the highs. Tuesday saw Feb'17 WIT close down $1.39 at 52.33/bbl, after seeing solid gains earlier in Tuesdays session to post 18-month highs on news that Kuwait had complied with the recent OPEC cuts, leading the market to believe that other OPEC member will follow suit shortly. However, news Ford is set to scrap its $1.6 bln plant in Mexico after US President elect Trump tweeted that GM should build card domestically or face a stiff import tax, was seen by sources as the reason for the sharp reversal.

 

BA5095570B596D5CF0AB3D4E1AA80960FD6BE1BA2008A69B47pimgpsh fullsize distrWednesday sees a full day of data releases on both sides of the Atlantic, with the services PMI data the early focus, followed by the Euro area inflation data. The European calendar gets underway at 07:45 GMT, with the release of the French consumer sentiment data. The euro area December services PMI numbers are expected from 08:15 GMT, when the Spanish data is due. The Italian PMI will be released at 08:45 GMT, with French data at 08:50 GMT, German at 08:55 GMT and the combined euro are data at 09:00 GMT. There is plenty of UK data due at 09:30 GMT, including the Bank of England's M4 and consumer lending data, along with the December Market Construction PMI numbers. The headline release will likely be the euro area flash December inflation data, set for publication at 10:00 GMT.



Following stronger data in German, Spain and to a lesser degree France, the odds of an upside surprise to euro area inflation have risen. The US calendar gets underway at 12:00 GMT, with the release of the MBA weekly applications index, closely followed by the December domestic vehicle sales data. Domestic made vehicle sales are expected to slide modestly in December from the 13.8 million rate in the previous month. Seasonal adjustment factors will subtract significantly from unadjusted sales in December after adding in November, but an effort by consumers to beat higher interest rates may have led them to dealers. The current week Redbook Retail Sales Index is due at 13:55 GMT, with the ISM-NY Manufacturing Index expected at 14:45 GMT. At 19:00 GMT, the minutes of the Fed's December FOMC meeting will be published.

 

It’s a slow European data day Thursday, with little due for release on the Continent or the UK. At 09:30 GMT, the UK December Market/CIPS Services PMI data will be released, with expectations for a strong data to sit alongside the strong manufacturing and construction data. The EMU producer prices data will be published at 10:00 GMT. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 12:00 GMT, with the release of the Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions. At 13:15 GMT, the ADP Employment Report will cross the wires. The latest US Jobless Claims data will be released at 13:30 GMT. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 261,000 in the Dec. 31 week after a 10,000 decline in the previous week. The four-week moving average, which fell by 750 to 263,000 in the Dec. 24 week, would rise by only 750 in the coming week as the 258,000 level in the Dec. 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.


Canadian industrial production data will be published at the same time. The final December Market Services Index is due for release at 14:45 GMT, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index set for release at 15:00 GMT. The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to a reading of 56.8 in December after a solid gain to 57.2 in November. The flash Market Services estimate fell to 53.4 from 54.6 in November. The US DOE Natural Gas Stocks data will be published at 15:30 GMT, followed by the weekly crude oil stocks data at 16:00 GMT. Late US data will see the publication of the Fed Weekly M2 Money Supply Data.

 

Technical Overview

The lack of follow through on fresh 14+ year lows has resulted in a break above the 21-DMA with this level now initial support. Consolidation above the 21-DMA will increase the risk of a test of the $1.0653-89 resistance region. Bulls look for a close above $1.0689 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to $1.0873-0.0951 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below $1.0446 to end correction talk.


US stock index futures are trading slightly weaker in quiet trade as the US Dollar weakens across the board, seeing the resulting Yen strength pressure Japanese stocks slightly. Currently the Mar'17 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 1.25 points at 2,263, the Mar'17 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 4.25 points at 4,929.25, while the Mar'17 e-mini Dow futures are trading 7 down points at 19,849.After some initial choppiness, US stock markets glided gradually higher on Wednesday with Asian markets firmer earlier in the day, led by a massive rally in Japan, while European markets were fairly flat. The Dow Jones advanced 60.40pts (0.3%) to 19,942.16 and the S&P 500 climbed 12.92pts (0.55%) to 2,270.75. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 47.92pts (0.9%) and settled at 5,477.00 while the Russell 2000 stormed 1.65% to 1,387.95, ending just high of its record high, set on 9 December.

 

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daily news web 03.01European and US markets return in full Tuesday, with a full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic. The European calendar kicks off at 07:00 GMT, with the publication of the German ILO employment data. German new car registrations are also expected. French flash December inflation will be released at 07:45 GMT, followed by Spanish employment data at 08:00 GMT and Swiss retail sales at 08:15 GMT. German state CPI data will be releases throughout the morning session, starting with Saxony at 08:00 GMT. German federal unemployment data will be published at 08:55 GMT, with Italian harmonized inflation expected at 08:55 GMT. The first UK release of 2017 is expected at 09:30 GMT, when the Market December manufacturing PMI data is published. Following a solid run of PMI survey data into the close of 2016, although October and November dipped from the September post Brexit high, analysts expect manufacturing PMI to be stable in December, forecasting an outcome of 53.4, unchanged on the previous month.

The final European release of the day comes at 13:00 GMT, when German federal inflation data is set for release. Across the Atlantic, the US data calendar gets underway from 14:45 GMT, with the release of the Market final December Manufacturing PMI. At 15:00 GMT, the December ISM Manufacturing Index and the November construction spending data will be released. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise further to a reading of 53.5 in December from 53.2 in November. The flash Markit estimate rose slightly to 54.2 in December. Regional conditions data have generally suggested stronger growth, with gains in the Philadelphia, Empire, Richmond and Dallas surveys, while the MNI Chicago headline index slipped modestly, but remained in growth territory. Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.6% in November after a 0.5% gain in October. The pace of housing starts fell by 18.7% in the month, which should cut residential construction spending after two gains.

Technical Overview

The recovery from Dec lows appears to have stalled ahead of the $1.0685-1.0697 region where the 55-DMA is located and again looks heavy as a result. Bears now look for a close below $1.0441 to reconfirm focus on 2016 lows. Daily studies have corrected back to more bear friendly levels and are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Fresh 2016 lows are needed to shift bearish focus to tests of the $1.0208 support.

Spot Gold last up $10.30 at $1,157.85 per ounce, in a $1,158.05 to $1,49.60 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market trading higher on a weaker US dollar, though volumes have been thin with Japanese markets closed for a Bank holiday. That said, Feb'17 futures saw some ~4k trade on the move from $1,151.10 to 1,156.70 to post a 1,158.50 high to last trade up $6.50 at 1,158.30. Friday saw Gold trade in a $1,155.80/$1,163.65 range On Dec. 15, gold bottomed at $1,122.90, which was the lowest level since Feb. 2, when the precious metal saw a low near $1,122.45. The next gold supports will be the $1,115.80 lows from Feb. 1 and the $1,108.45 lows from Jan. 29. If the dollar keeps rising in 2017, market players would not be surprised to see the precious metal dip towards $1,100.00. The 2016 gold low was $1,061.95, seen Jan. 4. Gold would need to take out this month's highs near $1,188.20, seen Dec. 5, for upward momentum to mount.


EM2017040 powerd by MINI Fixed Income and FX Bullet Points Publisted 03/01/2017

daily news web 30UK Market Snapshot

UK markets closed in positive territory yesterday, bolstered by gains in precious metal miners and oil heavyweights. Meanwhile, economic data showed that UK’s Nationwide housing prices advanced more than anticipated in December. Fresnillo, Centamin and Randgold Resources climbed 4.6%, 4.7% and 4.8%, respectively, tracking gains in gold prices. Energy sector stocks, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow Oil edged up 0.5%, 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively. Old Mutual and Mediclinic International added 1.4% each. Bucking the trend, basic metals miners, Anglo American, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton slid 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, amid lower copper prices. Dixons Carphone slipped 0.1%, as it traded ex-dividend. The FTSE 100 gained 0.2%, to close at 7,120.3, while the FTSE 250 rose 0.1%, to settle at 18,029.5.

US Market Snapshot

US markets ended lower yesterday, as losses in financial firms offset a rise in healthcare stocks. Cempra tanked 57.4%, after the US Food and Drug Administration rejected its drug for pneumonia due to lack of additional safety data. Financial sector stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group and Bank of America slid 0.7%, 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively. On the flipside, Fortress Biotech soared 21.0%, after it announced a breakthrough in its cancer study, stating that its phase 1 clinical trial of MB-101 achieved complete reduction in patient affected by glioblastoma. Sears Holdings jumped 10.0%, after the company stated that it had received a secured standby letter of credit facility, easing liquidity concerns. The S&P 500 fell marginally, to settle at 2,249.3. The DJIA slipped 0.1%, to settle at 19,819.8, while the NASDAQ eased 0.1%, to close at 5,432.1.

Europe Market Snapshot

Other European markets finished lower yesterday, weighed down by a slump in banking shares. Italian lenders, Unione di Banche Italiane, Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl and Banco Popolare declined 3.1%, 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively. Other banks, Credit Agricole, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank lost 1.2%, 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Credit Suisse Group dropped 3.4%, on the back of media report that it is under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for sale of tuna bonds worth $850.0 million issued by Mozambique. Car makers, Peugeot, Bayerische Motoren Werke and Volkswagen shed 1.2%, 1.4% and 2.0%, respectively. The FTSEurofirst 300 index slid 0.3%, to close at 1,424.9. Among other European markets, the German DAX Xetra 30 fell 0.2%, to close at 11,451.1, while the French CAC-40 dipped 0.2%, to settle at 4,838.5.

Asia Market Snapshot

Markets in Asia are trading mostly higher this morning. In Japan, Takata has soared 21.2%, after news emerged that the company is heading towards a deal with the US Department of Justice over deadly airbag scandal. Toshiba has jumped 9.1%, snapping its recent losing streak. On the contrary, NTN and Sumitomo Metal Mining have shed 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Oil stocks, Inpex and Japan Petroleum Exploration have lost 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. In Hong Kong, lenders, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of East Asia have gained 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. In South Korea, markets are closed on account of a holiday. The Nikkei 225 index is trading marginally higher at 19,147.3, while the Hang Seng index is trading 1.0% up at 22,003.6. Yesterday, the Kospi index advanced 0.1% to close at 2,026.5.

Technical Overview

Crude Oil

At 04:30 GMT today, Brent crude oil one month futures contract is trading 0.23% or $0.13 higher at $56.98 per barrel, ahead of Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count data, scheduled to release later in the day. Yesterday, the contract climbed 1.12% or $0.63, to settle at $56.85 per barrel, amid rising optimism over OPEC’s production cuts starting from January 2017. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories rose by 600,000 barrels for the week ended 23 December 2016.

Gold

At 04:30 GMT today, Gold futures contract is trading 0.19% or $2.20 higher at $1160.30 per ounce. Yesterday, the contract advanced 1.51% or $17.20, to settle at $1158.10 per ounce, following a broad weakness in the greenback and losses in US equity markets.

Currency

At 0430GMT today, the EUR is trading 0.36% higher against the USD at $1.0528. Investors will focus today on the US Chicago purchasing manager for December, slated to release later in the day. Yesterday, the EUR strengthened 0.80% versus the USD, to close at $1.0490. The US Dollar remained weaker against its major counterparts, after the US goods trade deficit widened in November from previous month.

At 0430GMT today, the GBP is trading 0.18% higher against the USD at $1.2279. Yesterday, the GBP rose 0.27% versus the USD, to close at $1.2257, after data showed that UK’s housing prices advanced more than anticipated in December.

Fixed Income

In the US, long term treasury prices rose and pushed yields lower, amid weakness in US equities. Yesterday, yield on 10-year notes lost 2 basis points to 2.49%, while yield on 2-year notes declined 4 basis points to 1.22%. Meanwhile, 30-year bond yield fell 1 basis point to 3.08%.

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